I’d like to explain what I believe to be the strategy that President Trump will use to get Iran (and probably Syria) to agree to peace talks. I wrote previously about the President’s strategy to get North Korea to negotiate peace. Even though that process is in its infancy, the fact that there is a process at all is astounding to many. The process Trump will use for Iran is similar.
The President’s goal of making peace with North Korea was first revealed by the mysterious person known as Q, who told us last December that Trump was working on peace talks with Kim Jong Un. Last week, Q said that Iran is next on the President’s peace agenda.
Do we have any evidence that Trump is planning on negotiating peace with Iran?
I believe we do. Trump has signaled that preparations for peace talks include putting the right people in place to negotiate with Iran. He noted that he and Rex Tillerson were incompatible on their views toward Iran. He replaced Tillerson with Mike Pompeo, specifically citing their views on Iran as one of the main reasons for the change. That tells us two things: it confirms that Trump is planning on dealing with Iran and it shows that he’s willing to make changes in his own cabinet to facilitate the process.
How will Trump negotiate peace talks with Iran?
The same way he got North Korea to ask for peace talks.
Trump recognized that North Korea is China’s proxy. He held President Xi Jinping responsible for North Korea’s bad behavior. When the price China had to pay for North Korea’s errant behavior became too steep, President Xi contacted Trump and arranged a meeting between Trump and Kim Jong Un.
Trump’s strategy in the Middle East is essentially the same. He knows that Syria and Iran are proxies of Russia. He’s going to hold Putin accountable for their bad behavior. When the price becomes too steep, he’ll arrange peace talks.
How will Trump hold Russia accountable?
By working with NATO partners like France.
— Steve Herman (@W7VOA) March 21, 2018
President Trump is now holding Putin accountable for using chemical weapons. Syria has used them in the past and Trump has made them pay for it. That demonstrates a pattern of behavior in Trump that we can use to predict how he’ll react in the future. His strategy is twofold:
The first part is to work with a coalition of nations to apply diplomatic pressure on Putin to get him to correct the problems in his own country, in Iran and in Syria. (That pressure could include economic sanctions if Putin allows the bad behavior to go on long enough.)
The second part involves trade so we’ll need to briefly look at the global trade situation.
China is now warning the U.S. that no one will win in a trade war. Angela Merkel said the same thing earlier this month. Nations like China and Germany have for decades taken advantage of the horrific trade policies of our former presidents, who sold out our economic strength for their own personal gain. Trump is exposing the corruption of former presidents and turning the tables on trade. China and Germany say they don’t want a trade war with us because they know we’re already in a trade war and they’re winning. They’re worried that we’ll regain our economic strength under Trump and wipe out the advantages they bought from former presidents.
Vladimir Putin and Russia have as much to lose as anyone on trade. Russia’s main source of income is enegry—particulary oil. Energy is Russia’s Achilles heel and it’s the key to Trump’s strategy to reign in Iran and Syria.
Trump’s plans to compete head-to-head with Russia in the energy markets. Russia depends on oil and gas exports and Trump has made it clear that he intends to make America the greatest energy exporter in the world. (The war in Syria was primarily about energy exports. Syria is strategic because whoever controls it controls the real estate needed to run a natural gas pipeline to Southern Europe. Russia wanted that right. So did Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The Saudis made donations to the Clinton Foundation and other politicians to fund their war, the goal of which was to oust Bashar al-Assad from Syria and replace him with someone who would allow a Saudi pipeline to Southern Europe. Trump has no plans to continue that war. That’s why he laid down new terms with the Saudis and other Arab nations when he took office.)
The U.S. is competing with Russia in the energy markets. We’re reviving coal and shale, producing record amounts of oil and exporting liquefied natural gas to Europe. The U.S. is on pace this year to unseat Russia as the world’s leading oil producer. That kind of competition terrifies Putin and it gives Trump leverage. Trade leverage along with diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions will get Putin to bring Iran and Syria to heel. It’s about making him sufficiently uncomfortable. Once he is, he’ll bring Iran and Syria to the negotiating table and peace talks will commence.
p.s. As I was writing this article, the President was tweeting. Note the second tweet, suggesting that Russia will help him with Iran, North Korea, Syria and other problem nations if things are handled the right way.
I called President Putin of Russia to congratulate him on his election victory (in past, Obama called him also). The Fake News Media is crazed because they wanted me to excoriate him. They are wrong! Getting along with Russia (and others) is a good thing, not a bad thing…….
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 21, 2018
…..They can help solve problems with North Korea, Syria, Ukraine, ISIS, Iran and even the coming Arms Race. Bush tried to get along, but didn’t have the “smarts.” Obama and Clinton tried, but didn’t have the energy or chemistry (remember RESET). PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 21, 2018