Trump’s Strategy for Winning the Midterms

The party that holds the White House usually loses ground in the midterm election. It’s happened so often that people treat it like a law of physics. At the RNC’s midterm convention in Dallas this week, Trump said he asked his team why this keeps happening.

The answer is that the midterms are treated differently.

Presidential elections have campaign rallies, door knocking, and grassroots efforts to turn out the vote. Hundreds of millions of dollars go to advertising. Every candidate down the ballot benefits when their party’s presidential candidate wins. In the midterms, the machinery goes quiet. Voters who show up every four years stay home, and the party in power pays the price.

Trump looked at that pattern and decided it wasn’t an immutable law. It was a choice. Campaigns choose not to run midterm elections like they do in presidential years. With socialists becoming emboldened, he’s treating 2026 like a presidential campaign. There will be almost daily rallies, increased advertising, and a full social media push promoting his policies while throwing shade on the Democrats.

Trump lives to break traditions and do what the experts say can’t be done. So, he’s pulling out the stops in hope of keeping control of Congress.

A Call for Unity, Even With Old Rivals
The second piece of the strategy revealed itself in Trump’s tone toward John Cornyn. It’s no secret Trump doesn’t like Cornyn. But in his keynote address, he went out of his way to thank Cornyn, crediting him alongside Ted Cruz for the work on securing the border. “I’m being very nice,” he joked.

Trump is signaling a change of strategy. He’s calling on every conservative to rally around a goal between now and November. Keep the House. Keep the Senate. Everything else can wait—the infighting, the score-settling, and the policy disputes. After the election, we can go back to arguing. For now, the only thing that matters is denying Democrats the gavel.

What J.D. Vance Really Said About Charlie Kirk
The third data point came from J.D. Vance, in his remarks last night honoring Charlie Kirk on the anniversary of his death. “Charlie hated war,” he said.

Vance said he talked to Charlie almost daily. They didn’t agree on everything. But Charlie backed Trump’s agenda anyway, because he knew it was good for the country.

There’s a faction on the right led by people like Tucker Carlson, Thomas Massie, and Candace Owens that has made a habit of attacking Trump’s policies, often misrepresenting the facts, and floating the idea that a third party is the answer. Vance held Charlie up as the model for disagreeing without breaking ranks. Charlie had his own views, but he didn’t turn them into a wrecking ball.

A third party is appealing to people who are frustrated. It sounds like a noble principle, but look at what it actually does. It won’t replace the Republican Party. It will divide conservative votes between two candidates instead of consolidating them behind one. The only party that benefits from that is the Democrats. You can be furious with Trump’s policy and still understand that a divided conservative base hands power to an increasingly socialist party that hates America and wants it to fail.

Trump has never been shy about going after people he disagrees with. But right now, he’s asking us to bury the hatchet, at least temporarily. Win the midterm first. We can fight about everything else afterward.

Whether it works will come down to turnout in November, but it’s not a bad plan.