Preparing For a False Flag

For months, people in my social media feeds have been warning that a false flag attack is coming in Europe. The idea is that the EU wants war with Russia, and lacking a legitimate reason to escalate hostilities, a European nation will suffer a self-inflicted drone or missile attack and blame Russia to legitimize a NATO-led war against Moscow.

I don’t know whether a false-flag attack is coming. That isn’t the point of this article. The point is that many of the same people who insist a false-flag attack will trigger war with Russia are doing absolutely nothing to prepare for the war they believe is coming.

If one believes an attack will occur, then whether the attack is real or staged has nothing to do with how one ought to prepare for it.

The Sum of All Fears
In the film The Sum of All Fears, terrorists detonated a nuclear bomb in Baltimore and framed Russia, hoping to provoke the United States and start World War III.

It was a false flag operation. But the nuclear explosion was just as real as if the bomb had been launched by Russia. People died. Buildings were destroyed. Radiation spread just the same.

The term false flag describes the motive and deception behind an attack. It says nothing about the effects of the attack. That distinction seems to have gotten lost in the noise. People talk about a false flag almost as if identifying it beforehand somehow neutralizes the effect of the attack. It doesn’t.

If someone launches a missile and falsely blames Moscow, the missile still explodes. If electrical infrastructure is destroyed by a false flag attack, the lights still go out. In a false flag cyberattack on the banking system, the ATMs still stop working. Food disappears from store shelves regardless of who launched the attack.

Knowing who was really responsible for an attack does not protect you from the consequences of it.

Europe Is Preparing
You don’t have to believe a false flag attack is coming to see why preparation makes sense. And Europe is preparing for something big.

Today, Switzerland announced it has adopted a new national security strategy warning that the international environment has become increasingly unstable, that cyberattacks and other hybrid threats are rising, and that critical infrastructure is vulnerable.

Emmanuel Macron came from a security meeting today, warning that Russia’s threat against France and Europe has intensified. He announced plans to strengthen protection of critical infrastructure against drones and cyberattacks.

The British government maintains a public emergency-preparedness program that tells households to prepare for extended power outages, water interruptions, food shortages, communications failures, evacuation, and other emergencies. Its current guidance recommends keeping bottled water, nonperishable food, flashlights, batteries, radios, power banks, first-aid supplies, and important information available offline.

Germany is preparing doctors and hospitals for a possible military conflict with Russia. Lithuania approved a detailed national evacuation plan in July covering military and civilian threats. NATO has reinforced its eastern flank, and Germany now has an armored brigade permanently stationed in Lithuania.

This week, NATO fighters shot down a drone over Lithuania that officials believe entered from Belarus. Authorities later said the drone may have been carrying explosives.

Belarus is conducting military exercises close to the borders of Lithuania and Poland, including tank, mechanized, and counter-drone operations near the strategically important Suwałki Gap.

None of this means a false flag attack is imminent. It means Europe is preparing for a larger military conflict.

False Flag Logic
Today, someone posted that Europe is setting a trap that Putin will not fall for. They’re trying to goad Moscow into a larger military conflict. That statement is illogical on its face. The whole premise of a false flag is that your enemy refuses to attack you. So, you attack yourself and claim they did it. After claiming they attacked you without provocation, you launch an attack against them, and they must retaliate.

I have trouble understanding the logic of some of my friends. They confidently tell me that a false flag attack is coming, then go about their lives as if nothing will change. If you believe someone is planning an event that will trigger a global war, buying a few cans of tuna makes more sense than posting your 17th meme about the incoming false flag.

Knowing who really orchestrated an attack will not make drinking water appear in your pantry or keep your freezer cold.

Preparation Is Not Panic
When I mention preparedness, some people imagine a bunker filled with 25 years of freeze-dried food and ammo cans piled up to the ceiling. That isn’t an accurate picture (even though my video background does happen to look suspiciously like a nuclear bunker).

A discussion about preparedness can start with a few simple questions:

What happens if the power goes out for a week or your local water system is rendered inoperable by a cyberattack?

Do you have water?

What about food that doesn’t require refrigeration?

A way to cook?

Cash if electronic payment systems stop working?

A working flashlight?

Batteries?

Extra medications?

A battery-powered radio?

A backup power source?

A way to communicate with family if cellular networks and the internet go down?

Those preparations are useful whether the disruption is caused by war, a cyberattack, a storm, or an earthquake.

You don’t have to know exactly what crisis to prepare for. The smart approach is to identify the most likely set of problems and prepare for them. Most potential problems you’ll encounter affect the same basic needs: shelter, food, water, light, heat, and communication. Prepare for those first. Everything else is a bonus.